Fantasy Usage Model Notes: Week 11 Recap

Player Fantasy Usage Actual PPR Context Tyreek Hill WR1 (24.3) WR1 (28.6) xFPs: With Sammy (13.3), without (18.1). Brandon Aiyuk WR2 (23.8) WR5 (21.4) xFPs: With Deebo (9.5), without (16.3). Cooper Kupp WR3 (21.9) WR10 (19.2) 13.7 targets per game in last 4 weeks (1st). Davante Adams WR4 (20.8) WR2 (27.0) 22.7 xFPs on season is most among WR/RB. Keenan Allen WR5 (19.2) WR3 (24.1) 19.6 xFPs per game on season (2nd). Chase Claypool WR6 (18.3) WR14 (16.6) He’s even better than you think he is. Mike Evans WR7 (18.1) WR19 (15.6) 20% target share in last 4. TB passing often. Robert Woods WR8 (17.4) WR4 (22.5) Rams now 4th in neutral pass rate in last 4. Jerry Jeudy WR9 (16.9) WR31 (13.6) Leading NFL in air yards over last 4 games. Tee Higgins WR10 (16.1) WR24 (14.8) WR1/2 usage unlikely to stick w/o Burrow. Stefon Diggs WR11 (15.9) WR7 (20.4) 103 air yards per game as low-end WR1. Michael Thomas WR12 (15.9) WR46 (11.4) Rebounded in plus matchup on 52% targets. Anthony Miller WR13 (15.7) WR55 (10.3) Team-high 22% targets in last 4 weeks. Stop. Julio Jones WR14 (15.6) WR12 (18.6) Removed Week 11 (hamstring). Diontae Johnson WR15 (15.1) WR20 (15.6) WR3 overall in per-game usage. WR1/2. DK Metcalf WR16 (15.1) WR6 (20.6) SEA neutral pass rate has slipped recently. Richie James WR17 (14.9) WR9 (19.5) Battles Bourne for No. 3 job if Deebo back. Tyler Boyd WR18 (14.7) WR18 (15.7) WR2 usage unlikely to stick w/o Burrow. Curtis Samuel WR19 (14.6) WR13 (18.5) 14.0 xFPs in 5 games since injury. JuJu Smith-Schuster WR20 (14.1) WR17 (15.9) Inconsistent WR2/3 usage from slot. Josh Reynolds WR21 (14.1) WR53 (10.7) At least 11.0 xFPs in 5 straight. Deep threat. Jakobi Meyers WR22 (14.0) WR23 (14.9) 4.9 xFPs Week 11 despite 42-of-43 routes. Robby Anderson WR23 (14.0) WR52 (10.7) Trading big weeks on WR2 usage. Tim Patrick WR24 (13.9) WR35 (13.3) Every-down deep threat in shaky offense. Antonio Brown WR25 (13.6) WR49 (11.2) 100 air yards P/G on WR3 usage 3 games in. Terry McLaurin WR26 (13.4) WR11 (19.0) At least 10.9 xFPs in all games. Upside WR2. Adam Thielen WR27 (13.2) WR16 (16.0) Going nuts (10 TDs) on 14 red zone targets. Michael Gallup WR28 (13.0) WR71 (8.2) 7.9 xFPs in the 3 Dalton games. Deep targets. Allen Robinson WR29 (12.9) WR21 (15.4) No excuse for his WR2/3 usage, Bears. WR2. Tyler Lockett WR30 (12.6) WR44 (12.2) 22% targets in last 4. Efficient on WR3 usage. Sterling Shepard WR31 (12.6) WR43 (12.6) 24% target share in last 4 weeks. Flex play. D.J. Chark WR32 (12.5) WR22 (15.1) Efficient on inconsistent WR3 usage. Mike Williams WR33 (12.3) WR27 (14.3) 108 air yards per game in last 4 weeks (8th). Brandin Cooks WR34 (12.3) WR36 (13.2) Upside WR2/3 with less target competition. John Brown WR35 (12.2) WR47 (11.4) Injuries have led to inconsistent flex usage. KJ Hamler WR36 (12.1) WR54 (10.5) Slot YAC potential. 22-of-33 routes Week 11. CeeDee Lamb WR37 (11.9) WR34 (13.4) 13.1 xFPs in the 3 Dalton games. Slot stud. DeAndre Hopkins WR38 (11.9) WR29 (13.9) Efficient on 15.0 xFPs per game this season. DeVante Parker WR39 (11.9) WR51 (10.7) xFPs: With Preston Williams (10.3), w/o (15.8). A.J. Brown WR40 (11.9) WR42 (13.0) Stiff arms my regression models into the crust. Chris Godwin WR41 (11.9) WR32 (13.5) Targets, aDOT (8.0) down with Brady. WR3. Willie Snead WR42 (11.8) WR40 (13.0) More xFPs than Brown in 3 of last 4 games. Darnell Mooney WR43 (11.6) WR58 (9.8) Empty air yards king with Foles. 14.2 aDOT. Marvin Jones WR44 (11.6) WR15 (16.2) xFPs: With Golladay (7.2), without (11.9). Kendrick Bourne WR45 (11.5) WR48 (11.4) Not a lock to keep the No. 3 job. Larry Fitzgerald WR46 (11.5) WR64 (9.0) Season-high 14.7 xFPs Week 11. WR5 usage. A.J. Green WR47 (11.3) WR89 (6.0) Least efficient WR now with a backup QB. D.J. Moore WR48 (11.2) WR37 (13.2) Efficient on WR3/4 volume. 34-of-37 routes. Christian Kirk WR49 (11.0) WR41 (13.0) 25% of targets are 20+ air yards. Volatile. Michael Pittman WR50 (10.8) WR25 (14.8) Trending up but still WR4 usage. Russell Gage WR51 (10.7) WR81 (6.8) 40-of-48 routes Week 11 with Julio injured. Jalen Reagor WR52 (10.6) WR56 (10.0) Big play waiting to happen on WR5 usage. Corey Davis WR53 (10.5) WR30 (13.7) Efficient flex option on WR4/5 usage. Will Fuller WR54 (10.4) WR26 (14.6) Efficiency outlier on full-time routes. Upside. Denzel Mims WR55 (10.2) WR66 (8.8) Led Week 11 in air yards. Boom-bust WR4/5. Chris Conley WR56 (10.0) WR74 (7.6) Has played more with Laviska hurt. Jarvis Landry WR57 (9.9) WR85 (6.5) Not separating in run-heaviest OFF. WR4/5. Breshad Perriman WR58 (9.8) WR8 (20.3) 8.8 xFPs in 5 healthy games. Mims emerging. Travis Fulgham WR59 (9.6) WR73 (7.8) Under 12.0 xFPs in all 3 games with Reagor. T.Y. Hilton WR60 (9.5) WR76 (7.3) Ghost of T.Y. seeing WR5/6 usage. Demarcus Robinson WR61 (9.2) WR39 (13.0) 46-of-53 routes with Sammy out Week 11. Cole Beasley WR62 (9.2) WR38 (13.1) xFPs: With Brown (10.5), without (13.5). Justin Jefferson WR63 (9.1) WR33 (13.5) Don’t bet against the Griddy. Upside WR2/3. Zach Pascal WR64 (9.0) WR70 (8.4) Low aDOT slot option on WR6 usage. Danny Amendola WR65 (8.9) WR62 (9.1) One game above 11.0 xFPs all year. Darius Slayton WR66 (8.9) WR65 (8.9) 17% target share in last 4 weeks. Needs TDs. Braxton Berrios WR67 (8.9) WR80 (6.9) 1 Week 11 route with Crowder (35) back. Nelson Agholor WR68 (8.9) WR63 (9.0) Only two games above 8.5 xFPs. WR5/6. Amari Cooper WR69 (8.9) WR60 (9.4) 13.7 xFPs in the 3 Dalton games. Trending up. Damiere Byrd WR70 (8.4) WR45 (11.4) Had career-high 132 yards on iffy usage. Jakeem Grant WR71 (8.3) WR79 (7.0) xFPs: With Preston Williams (4.8), w/o (10.5). Marquise Brown WR72 (8.0) WR98 (4.4) Under 12.0 xFPs in 8-of-10 games. WR5. Valdes-Scantling WR73 (7.6) WR28 (14.0) Big play WR5/6 on 17.4 aDOT. Lazard back. Randall Cobb WR74 (7.6) WR88 (6.1) Likely out weeks (foot). Coutee to replace. Marvin Hall WR75 (7.2) WR57 (10.0) 30-of-40 Week 11 routes as deep threat. Keelan Cole WR76 (7.2) WR77 (7.3) Near full-time slot WR on bad offense. Cordarrelle Patterson WR77 (7.1) WR90 (5.8) Best Bears non-ARob skill player? Mecole Hardman WR78 (7.1) WR50 (11.0) Limited to 14-of-53 routes. COVID related? David Moore WR79 (6.9) WR59 (9.5) Week 11 routes: Moore (21 of 41), Swain (8). Emmanuel Sanders WR80 (6.7) WR69 (8.6) 6.7 xFPs per game in 3 since MT returned. Greg Ward WR81 (6.6) WR91 (5.7) 33-of-43 routes as slot in 3-WR sets. Golden Tate WR82 (6.6) WR67 (8.8) Under 9.0 xFPs in 6-straight games. Auden Tate WR83 (6.4) WR87 (6.5) Only 16-of-52 routes in Week 11. Gabriel Davis WR84 (6.4) WR92 (5.7) 42 air yards per game as the No. 4 WR. Marcus Johnson WR85 (6.2) WR110 (2.9) No. 4 receiver. DaeSean Hamilton WR86 (6.1) WR68 (8.7) No. 4 receiver. Cam Sims WR87 (5.7) WR61 (9.1) 27-of-28 routes in Week 11. Isaiah Wright WR88 (5.6) WR86 (6.5) Week 11 routes: CS (27-of-28), IW (11), SS (11). Steven Sims WR89 (5.5) WR78 (7.1) Battling Wright for slot snaps in 3-WR sets. Jalen Guyton WR90 (5.4) WR114 (2.8) Not being targeted despite 54-of-59 routes. River Cracraft WR91 (5.3) WR125 (1.7) Obviously not a thing. Henry Ruggs WR92 (5.3) WR106 (3.2) Taking my L on rookie year Ruggs. Rashard Higgins WR93 (5.2) WR83 (6.6) Week 11 routes: Hodge (23), Higgins (19). Austin Mack WR94 (5.1) WR84 (6.6) No. 4 receiver. Trent Taylor WR95 (5.1) WR115 (2.7) Obviously not a thing. Cedrick Wilson WR96 (5.0) WR139 (0.7) Week 11 routes: Noah Brown (12), Wilson (6). Hunter Renfrow WR97 (4.8) WR72 (7.8) Under 9.0 xFPs in 6-straight games. Byron Pringle WR98 (4.6) WR105 (3.3) Played ahead of Hardman in Week 11. Christian Blake WR99 (4.5) WR96 (4.8) Week 11 routes: Blake (27), Zaccheaus (7). Jeff Smith WR100 (4.5) WR117 (2.5) No. 4 receiver.

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